ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan constitutes approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. This measurement uses the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the leading contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional grouping.
The World Bank highlighted that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together account for an additional 47% of MENAAP’s population living under the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations represent roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP accounts for about 14% of the world’s extreme poverty, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region also remains the only World Bank zone where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
Pakistan’s situation has also worsened at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line, which is often used to define lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people living below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached approximately 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline in living standards to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, inflationary pressures, currency depreciation, and prolonged economic reforms.
Multiple shocks intensify poverty challenges
These recent findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. Incorporating new household survey data from Pakistan, the estimated extreme poverty rate for MENAAP in 2024 was revised upward from 11.8% to 14.4%. This adjustment added roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Although Pakistan’s economic growth has shown signs of recovery from recent lows, poverty levels remain concerning. The October regional update projected Pakistan’s GDP expansion at 3.7% for fiscal year 2025-26 and 3.8% for 2026-27. It also estimates real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to be 7.1% in 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027, after a lower rate in 2025.
The regional classification influences the headline statistics
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current classification of the MENAAP region, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this adjustment, the World Bank’s regional data grouped both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government has clarified that this change was administrative and statistical, and it does not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. According to Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad, this reclassification affected regional poverty figures by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also forecasted a slowdown for the regional economy in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% following a growth of 3.3% in 2025. Factors such as ongoing conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade sectors are expected to weigh heavily on regional activity. Developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are projected to remain relatively resilient, with an estimated growth of 4.3% in 2026. However, rising food and energy costs continue to strain household purchasing power across several economies in the region.